Social Diagnosis, Forecasting, and Design

Methodological Principles of Social Forecasting

The study of forecasting as a specific scientifically grounded form of anticipation necessitates an exploration of its species-specific characteristics, which define its uniqueness in relation to other forms of anticipation while maintaining the general, generic characteristics that serve as the foundation of anticipation as a category. Thus, understanding forecasting involves distinguishing and defining the boundaries of concepts that reflect various forms of anticipation.

The rejection of all forms of unscientific prediction was essential for forecasting, which, during the era of the Soviet Union, was compelled to defend its scientific validity and to distance itself from a skeptical view that equated it with mystical and pseudoscientific forms of prediction. Gradually, a wave of prophets and prophecies inundated the crisis-ridden post-Soviet societies. These phenomena became pertinent for social psychologists who explored the achievements in analyzing the conscious, unconscious, and subconscious, drawing upon the works of Z. Freud, C. Jung, and their successors. The crisis processes provoked phenomena of collective consciousness and the unconscious among insecure individuals seeking alternatives to scientific forecasting.

Anticipatory knowledge of the world, of others, and of oneself diverges both in the manner in which this knowledge is acquired and in the grounds upon which these forms rest. Psychologists have turned their attention to the study of unscientific forms of anticipatory reflection. For instance, L. Rehush examined premonitions, forebodings, prophecies, and predictions. A premonition reflects anticipatory feelings and expectations, manifesting as expressions of yet unexperienced emotions, indicated by a shift from a usual calm state to restlessness, accompanied by a desire for additional information about people or circumstances. It identifies the emergence of a premonition, founded upon developed feelings, emotionality as a personality trait, heightened sensitivity, concern, and experiences regarding relevant people, situations, or events.

As a form of anticipatory reflection, premonition is anchored in specific human emotions, such as excitement, fear, anxiety, worry, or the anticipation of pleasure and joyful experiences. The term "foreboding" emphasizes that knowledge is acquired seemingly by chance (guessing and hitting the mark); thus, it indicates not an object but rather a method of acquiring anticipatory knowledge. Foreboding ("complex prophecy") does not presume specialized scientific investigations and encompasses prognostic information obtained unconsciously, often as a result of an insight that follows an experience of interaction with a particular object, maintaining a focus on it. A hunch is frequently accompanied by a surge of joyful or satisfying emotion. The concept of "prophecy" as a form of anticipatory reflection is a verbal description of the future—"said beforehand." However, the semantics of the Russian language (предсказание) allows for the perception of an element reflecting the unconscious, intuition, in which it becomes difficult to explain how the prediction was obtained.

The term "prediction"—"to see ahead"—is rooted in the notion of "vision"; therefore, prediction may refer to forecasts that rely on sight (visual perception). In psychology, predictions are studied in observable phenomena (visual predictions in social perception or in various sports) or, more broadly, as anticipatory knowledge. Hence, this term is employed in two contexts: as closely related to "prophecy," when emphasis is placed on intuition and the unconscious acquisition of anticipatory knowledge, or as akin to scientific forecasting when the method of obtaining the forecast is purposeful and conscious.

We believe that the specificity of various forms of anticipation can be enhanced by incorporating contemporary scientific knowledge according to the criteria of "channel of acquisition," content, and form of anticipation. Thus, in a premonition, the channel of acquiring anticipation occurs through affective processes, through emotional-sensory perception. In prophecy, anticipation is realized through semantic reflection, in the channel of linguistic prediction mediated by meaningful sociocultural experience. Foreboding reflects intuitive anticipation (guessing) that operates as a subconscious self-structuring of connections overlooked by semantic-logical structures of reflection. Prediction manifests as a form of visual or spatiotemporal determination of events, aligned with the duration and tempo of events, as the rhythmic certainty of one’s actions.

It is important to recognize both primary (empirical) and secondary (organizing) forms of anticipatory reflection. Empirical reflections denote expectations and warnings of perception, while organizing forms relate empirical experiences to the integrity of reflection. Thus, a prediction based on a visual channel of empirical information gradually reflects a premonition, such as the expectation of a life-saving river by a tourist lost in the woods, the glow of a Cossack signal fire, the light signals of road traffic, or the reflection of the image of "the gentle shore of the sea" during a future vacation.

Premonitions and forebodings are shaped through various (yet primarily visual) channels of perception. A. de Saint-Exupéry eloquently captured this experience: "And again, an indistinct feeling stirred within me, whether it be joy or apprehension—still unclear, barely perceptible, arising from deep within. Someone brings me news from an unknown distance. Perhaps this is intuition? Once more I step outside—the wind has completely calmed. It is still cool. But I have already been forewarned. I guess—yes, I seem to guess what I am waiting for. Is this thought correct? Neither the sky nor the sands have yet signaled, but I have spoken with two dragonflies and a green butterfly.

I climb a sandy hill and sit facing the east. If I am right, she will not keep me waiting. Why have these dragonflies come here, what do they seek hundreds of kilometers from the inner oases? Small fragments washed ashore—a sure sign that a hurricane rages in the open sea. So too do these insects hint to me that a sandstorm approaches from the east, having swept away all the green butterflies from distant palm groves. I am already sprayed by the foam it has stirred up. And solemnly, for it is a guarantee of that, solemnly, for it carries a threat, solemnly, for it brings a storm, the eastern wind rises. The almost imperceptible breath barely reaches me. I am the last boundary reached by the weakened wave… Frantic joy overwhelms me: I sensed the danger like a savage, who, through subtle signs, anticipates what the morrow may bring; I grasped, from a half-word, the secret language of the desert, read its growing fury in the fluttering wings of a dragonfly."

Prediction, as an experience of primal visual anticipatory reflection, is organized both in premonitions and at the level of "imagery," representations, and even in a "broader" sense—visual comprehension, aimed at "purposefulness and awareness," in visual schemata, maps, and so forth.

Prophecy reflects the auditory channel of perception and, at its primary level, anticipates auditory images, which transform into the emotional component of anxiety ("everything fell silent—no sound could be heard," "such moments of silence occur in wartime") or the anticipation of joyful situations, in premonition it denotes anxiety or the expected joy of rhythmic consistency or inconsistency. It is not accidental that an increase in rhythmic frequency indicates uplift, activating perceptual reception. These effects have been skillfully employed in all the armies of the world—through the battle sounds of flutes among the ancient Greeks, kettledrums, and trumpets of the Cossacks, the drumming of battle and the marches of regular armies. Conversely, a soothing rhythm can induce a state of sleep. The anticipation of a gunshot in competitions is also a factor for a successful start and determines sub-sensory, sensory-motor, and perceptual anticipation (using the terminology of E. Surkov). It is no coincidence that the level of representations reflects the auditory harmony, as an anticipation of sound rhythmic, musical, and even linguistic organization.

In Ukrainian etymology, the concept of prophecy more vividly reflects the ideas and meaning of the harmonious, rhythmic organization of events—of the year (fate)—that anticipates and reflects what an individual foresees; whereas, in Russian etymology, "предсказание" embodies the semantic linguistic organization of complex anticipatory representations and levels of linguistic thought.

The auditory channel plays a vital role in social communications. According to the traditions of one African tribe, when God created the inhabitants of the continent, He first made the drummer, followed by the hunter and the blacksmith. The wise African God understood that a tribe survives not so much through the skillful hunter or the adept blacksmith, but rather thanks to the drummer, who can instantly gather the tribe's members during moments of danger, when they might be flustered in their huts or scattered in the surroundings. The drum holds such a significant place in the lives of African tribes that each newborn is given two names—one common, linguistic name and a second, specially designated for the drum. A "drum name!"

In the realm of social anticipation among Orthodox peoples, the church bell has played an equally important role. In Cossack folklore, it is said that when preparing for an uprising, the kobzars would tune their musical instruments to the bells of the Kyiv-Pechersk Lavra and disperse throughout Ukraine, creating a harmonious "unison" of instruments and songs across the land. When it was necessary to strike the tonal essence of the region, the instruments would be tuned to the central church of the locality. This anticipatory reflection was also tied to the specific tonality of the bells, interpreted as an expectation of what had occurred and what was conveyed through the ringing.

Even less attention has been given by forecasters—aside from sports psychologists—to kinesthetic anticipation, which holds particular significance for contact sports, martial arts, and fencing. The primary empirical reflexes, skills of movement, and reactions are refined through muscle memory, a sequence of anticipatory movements organized around an anticipation of an opponent's actions or the spatiotemporal shifts in situations, a joyful movement responsive to changes, known in martial arts as timing—the sense of the rhythm of opponents' encounters and the corresponding, unconscious organization of one’s actions. At the level of imagination, this involves forming images of action in both standard and extraordinary situations, with a cognitive-linguistic level dedicated to comprehending activities aimed at preempting situations.

Let us note the experience of educating deaf-blind children through the kinesthetic channel at the Zagorsk School for the Deaf and Blind, leading them to a linguistic-cognitive level, and even to a creative level, as evidenced by defended dissertations. Notably, we recall Alexander Vasilyevich Suvorov, a Doctor of Philosophy, whose destiny was significantly shaped by his teacher at the Zagorsk School, O.I. Meshcheryakov, and the distinguished philosopher E.V. Ilyenkov, who facilitated the education of four graduates from Zagorsk (Sergiev Posad) at the Faculty of Psychology at Moscow State University. In 1996, O.V. Suvorov defended his doctoral dissertation on the topic of "Humanity as a Factor in the Self-Development of the Individual." Another remarkable individual is Olga Ivanovna Skorokhodova, born on July 11 (24), 1914, in the village of Belozirka, Kherson region. She studied at a clinic-school for deaf-blind children, established in 1923 by Professor Ivan Opanasovych Sokolyansky in Kharkiv. She became a professional defectologist, a candidate of pedagogical sciences, was awarded the Order of the Red Banner of Labour, and is the author of the well-known book "How I Perceive, Imagine, and Understand the Surrounding World."

We emphasize that the kinesthetic channel of developmental anticipation has not escaped the attention of information technology developers. For instance, the Israeli firm "Virtach" began producing a computer mouse that allows blind individuals to use a computer. On the "back" of the mouse are three panels with raised, movable rods that translate text from the monitor screen into embossed Braille. Furthermore, the mouse can audibly inform the user of the cursor's position on the screen and which object it is targeting. This system enables the blind not only to read from the screen but also to engage in computer graphics and even play video games.

In the Japanese space agency, a monitor has been developed featuring 3,072 retractable rods, allowing images to be perceived through touch. However, the clarity of the images is reduced by a hundredfold compared to a standard monitor.

In contrast to visual, auditory, and even kinesthetic channels, two other channels of perception have not been generalized: the gustatory (which perceives tastes) and olfactory (which perceives scents) channels. It is well-known that, for example, in Greco-Persian, Indo-Tibetan, and Chinese medicine, the diagnosis of many ailments was carried out precisely through these channels—the gustatory (through the taste sensed by the patient) and the olfactory (through the perceived smell), often in conjunction with other diagnostic channels, which determined the possible state and future treatment of the patient.

Research into the impact of gustatory and olfactory channels on the formation of primary perceptions, their influence on anticipation, imagination, and cognitive-linguistic anticipations remains a future endeavor. However, it can be asserted that they do influence social behavior and its subconscious choices, both of individuals and communities, through the effects of "fashionable" scents, tastes, and the behaviors of connoisseurs and scent enthusiasts. These perceptual functions predominantly exhibit a biologically determined character, yet they too are cultured and form new contours of social anticipation.

All forms of anticipation, especially those that are generalized, possess individual nuances at the personal level. The development of perceptual channels and levels of anticipation—primary empirical perception, secondary generalized perception, premonition (emotional-sensory), imagination, and holistic perception at the cognitive-linguistic and communal levels—is significant for the individual. Moreover, individuals engage in a holistic anticipatory reflection that embodies the unity of personal and societal aspects at these levels. Primary empirical perceptions, shared premonitions (sympathy), collective imaginations, and cognitive-linguistic reflections are also defined within collective consciousness and the subconscious.

The study of anticipatory reflection within the phenomenal realm of collective consciousness and the unconscious has been rapidly synthesized within political science, as the uncertainty of unified guidelines for societal transformation and modernization necessitated diverse methods of psychological manipulation in politics. The influence on the temporal mode of the future is particularly sought after in electoral campaigns, as changes in power are associated with the potential for improvement. This political technological practice has rehabilitated forms of forecasting within the registers of collective unconscious and consciousness.

Thus, according to V. Horbatenko, a general concept encompassing all methods of obtaining information about the future, ranging from mythology to futurology, is "forecasting." He distinguishes several types of forecasts: prophetic, empirical, intuitive, and scientific forecasting. Prophecies are the most ancient form of forecasting, based on mystical knowledge about the future, which remains unproven and unverified by logic or science. Empirical forecasting is grounded in life experiences, including political experiences, knowledge of similar events and processes. This type of forecast relies on observational and experimental data, rooted in sensory experience. Intuitive forecasting is based on existing subconscious anticipations regarding the future. Human perception consists of two components—sensation (the reflection of the physical world) and intuition (realities beyond its limits). Scientific forecasting, in the specific context of political forecasting, is defined by V. Horbatenko as that which is based on knowledge of patterns, reliable facts of political life, actual directions of political processes, and the interactions of political institutions.

In this definition, an unjustified preference is given to a singular visualized channel of organizing perception as anticipatory reflection, selected as a generic concept, in place of anticipation, which allows for the investigation of other channels of perception and levels of reflection. While this continues the tradition of only exploring complex generalized forms of anticipatory reflection, a classification emerges that divides mystical and scientific forms of anticipation, while also including empirical forms linked to sensory levels, reflecting the physical world, and intuition "beyond its limits." Such a classification has a right to exist as an attempt to distinguish science from mysticism, empiricism from intuition, and theory (grounded in the knowledge of patterns).

Yet, this classification reflects the pathways of investigation rather than the pseudoscientific direction of mysticism, and it does not adequately portray the sequence, stages, and mechanisms of anticipatory reflection, significantly narrowing the scope of research on anticipation. In this context, we distinguish forms of anticipation from manipulations of consciousness and the subconscious, which serve merely as veils for forms of anticipation.

Forecasting, as scientifically grounded assumptions regarding the future, indeed represents a higher level of organization across various tiers of anticipation within the holistic acquisition and utilization of knowledge aimed at achieving a goal. Goal-setting harmonizes the conditions of the surrounding environment, alongside needs, interests, motives, hopes, expectations, convictions, objectives, experiences, and feedback mechanisms into a singular cognitive and transformative activity.

Moreover, activity in the mode of anticipatory reflection is a holistic, integral generalization of the subject within society and its development. This anticipatory reflection, occurring at the linguistic-cognitive level of anticipation, is closely tied to imaginative anticipation, organizing proactive activity at the level of representations. The proactive reflection is predicated on an imaginative foundation that supports the active generalization of future modalities, as activity is always interwoven with the unity of analytical and synthetic procedures, whole-oriented decomposition of situations, and the productive composition of actions. It is from the image, defined by the essential qualities of objectivity, holistic constancy, and generality, that the awareness and logical construction of activity commence, during which certain significant connections may be overlooked, and parts of the whole image may remain unacknowledged.

Awareness of the image is complemented by intuition. These processes are substantiated by synergistic studies conducted by S. Kurdyumov and O. Knyazeva. They assert that self-organization forms the foundation of creative intuition, illumination, and insight. This leads to the filling of absent links, the "bridging of gaps," and the self-construction of a holistic image. Thoughts suddenly find structure and clarity. Intuition is always holistic (this is a complete grasp), in contrast to logic, which is analytical.

This process of logical construction was noted by V. Lisichkin, who defined scientific forecasting as a method of scientific knowledge. "Scientific forecasting is a form of constructive activity of the brain aimed at reproducing a picture of an empirically unobserved phenomenon...; it possesses as its content an informational model of future events and can serve as a means of scientific knowledge." This definition reflects the psychological foundation of constructive brain activity; the resultant orientation of reflection concerning the "picture of an empirically unobserved phenomenon"; the productive component—a "model of future events"; and the identifying characteristic—a "means of scientific knowledge."

1. Bestuzhev-Lada also identifies forecasting as one of the forms of anticipatory cognition. Forecasting is understood as "a specialized scientific inquiry, the subject of which is the prospects for the development of a phenomenon." In contrast to other forms of anticipatory reflection, forecasting possesses a purposeful character, consciously setting the aim of obtaining a forecast, and examining or selecting the grounds for its construction, sometimes defining the form in which the forecast should be obtained. This may take the shape of a predictive conclusion, an image of the future in the form of a model, a plan for the future, a hypothesis, and so forth.

In this operational definition of forecasting, there is a refinement and expansion of identifying characteristics. Instead of defining the psychological foundation, a procedural attribute is introduced, whereby forecasting is characterized as a "specialized scientific inquiry." The resultant orientation of reflection, its objectivity, is defined as "the prospect for the development of a phenomenon," as opposed to "the picture of an empirically unobserved phenomenon." It is essential to emphasize that scientific forecasting is directly connected to the visual basis, organization, and logically purposeful generalization of anticipatory reflection. The productive component also undergoes a slight modification, shifting from "a model of future events" to a diversity within the unity of form and content of reflection—"predictive conclusion, an image of the future in the form of a model, a plan for the future, a hypothesis, and more."

1. Regush continues the tradition of investigating forecasting as a form of human activity wherein knowledge of the future constitutes the "primary product" of cognitive forecasting activities, with its aim being the acquisition of forecasts. She identifies those characteristics that constitute its essence as cognitive psychological activity. Firstly, forecasting is understood as "a process of inquiry," "analysis," "a facet of cognitive activity," and constitutes a cognitive activity of the individual. Secondly, forecasting leads to knowledge of the future under certain conditions. These include: a) establishing the grounds for forecasting (knowledge of the past and mechanisms of objective processes); transforming the grounds concerning the future (modeling the object of forecasting in new conditions) and relating them to specific data regarding the forecasted object (considering current information, conditions for the manifestation of patterns, etc.); b) the form of acquiring knowledge about the future ("concept," "image," "assumption," "deduction of statements," etc.). Thirdly, the result of cognitive forecasting activity possesses specificity: the reflection of the future takes into account the probability of its occurrence and various temporal perspectives. Based on the purpose of constructing the forecast, a distinction is made between exploratory forecasting, in which the forecast describes a new (future) state of the object, and normative forecasting, wherein the process of achieving a specified final state is projected.

To these characteristics, we must add another. Fourthly, forecasting activity serves as a holistic orientation of subjects towards the selection and realization of defined alternatives for development, with its result being the actuality of the chosen alternatives within the realm of possibility and necessity.

The operational significance of forecasting has gradually come to be defined not only as the goal-setting of the subject but also as a cognitive and operational tool that can be transmitted and replicated within society, and even within the comprehensive set of social technologies, determining the socio-technological framework.

Thus, V. Podshivalkina regards forecasting in the context of the problem of developing and implementing social technologies as a vital foundation for seeking new models of social technologies, which define the degree and level of purposeful changes, serve as an important component of the process of monitoring the implementation and functioning of social technology, and are included within diagnostic social technology. Furthermore, V. Patrushev, in his classification of social technologies, places forecasting as a criterion of "method of social technologies" alongside modeling, design, planning, social control, and socio-diagnostics.

The socio-technological content delineates how effective activity becomes an innovation transferred as experience to other subjects, preserved within the socio-cultural space of society as a scientific and practical tradition, which, in turn, develops alongside social processes and elevates social technologies to a new level. Social technologies reflect the processes of objectivation and institutionalization of productive activity. In this context, social forecasting is defined as an identifier of the future of social technologies, which, in addressing pressing and prospective issues of society, opens up options and alternatives for development, determining the time interval for changes in social space and societal relations.

In this context, the application of F. Vasylyuk's methodological concept of "methodological hope" and "trust" is pertinent. In our view, this concept reflects a proactive representation at the meta-level of research. The author asserts that psychotherapy cannot "remain anthropologically indifferent and fail to recognize the immense energy it unleashes by revealing yet another 'archetype' and releasing long-held genies into the psychological and social sphere." Mere justifications for irresponsibility are no longer sufficient, whether from contemporary postmodernism (which regards any philosophical and axiological identity as a ridiculous anachronism), outdated positivism ("we rely solely on facts and are accountable for the accuracy of our procedures"), general pragmatism ("our law is utility for the client"), or medical reasoning ("all means are justified in the pursuit of alleviating symptoms").

These justifications often enable scholars to evade their own decisions and responsibilities regarding the notion of "social technologies" as a whole, not just in psychotherapy. Prediction is no exception in this regard. Psychotherapy serves as a vivid example of the shifting hopes for the future arising from the interaction between the psychotherapist, the subject of influence, and the client, the subject anticipating that influence.

1. Vasylyuk examines the history of psychotherapeutic hopes from a philosophical-anthropological perspective. The pre-Freudian stage of hope was linked to the effect of suggestion, the hypnotic influence of the physician (the subject) on the behavior of the patient (the object of influence). According to S. Freud, the primary psychotherapeutic effect is the patient’s awareness of the restoration of their human right to be a subject, which unveils "the freedom of consciousness." The "freedom of will" is realized by Jacob Moreno through the effect of spontaneity, as well as in the exploration of the nature of conscious will and caprice. The patient is liberated from the second type of slavery inherent in suggestive therapy—slavery to another's will. The next step was taken by humanistic psychotherapy, specifically the nondirective, client-centered, and person-centered therapy of Carl Rogers. Psychotherapists place their hopes on the "experience of the patient," on the inner process comprising human emotions, intellect, imagination, and will, encompassing both mental and bodily functions. This asserts the subject-subject significance of psychotherapy. This approach is also developed in communication theory, based on the methodology of Gregory Bateson, and in the linguistic psychoanalysis of Jacques Lacan, affirming the dialogical nature of the therapist-client communications as personal encounters. However, as F. Vasylyuk notes, even within the dialogical paradigm, hope stretches across various poles. At one pole, an internal dialogue is expected from the patient, which is organized, refined, and stimulated. At the other pole, proponents of neuro-linguistic programming shift hope to an extreme faith in technology, diminishing the individuality of both the therapist and the patient. Hope is placed in operational instructions, while shortcomings are defined as the incompetence of the psychotherapist and the deviance of the client.

This analysis by F. Vasylyuk aligns with V. Stiopin's examination of the development of three historical types of scientific rationality: classical (in its two states—disciplinary and disciplinarily organized), non-classical, and post-non-classical science, alongside the corresponding global scientific revolutions in the history of technogenic civilization. Each stage is characterized by a specific state of scientific activity directed towards the continuous growth of objectively true knowledge in the "subject-means-object" relationship. The understanding of the subject includes value-oriented structures of activity, knowledge, skills in applying methods and means.

The classical type of scientific rationality, which focuses on the object, aims to eliminate all that pertains to the subject, means, and operations of its activity in theoretical substantiation and description. The goals and values of science, which determine the strategies of research and the means of fragmenting the world, at this stage—as in all others—are determined by the prevailing worldview orientations and value orientations within culture. Yet classical science does not conceptualize these determinations (Subject — Means — {Object}).

The non-classical type of rationality considers the connections between knowledge of the object and the nature of the means and operations of activity. The elucidation of these connections is regarded as a condition for an objectively true description and understanding of the world. However, the relationships between intra-scientific and social values and goals still remain outside the realm of scientific reflection, although they implicitly shape the nature of knowledge (defining what and how we distinguish and understand in the world) (Subject — {Means — Object}).

The post-non-classical type of scientific rationality expands the field of reflection concerning activity. It takes into account the relationship of the acquired knowledge about the object not only with the characteristics of the means and operations of activity but also with value-oriented structures of goals. Moreover, it elucidates the connection between intra-scientific goals and extra-scientific social values and objectives ({Subject — Means — Object}). Each new type of scientific rationality is characterized by specific foundations unique to it, allowing for the differentiation and exploration of corresponding types of systemic objects (simple, complex, and self-developing systems) in the world. The subsequent stage does not simply annihilate the previous one; instead, there exists continuity between these stages.

Postmodern dismantling of the subject-object modality leaves only the means from this triad, disregarding both subjective values and objective conditions and processes. Both NLP in psychotherapy and social technologies, severed from the context of an activity-oriented approach, cultivate the technological slavery of subjects and justify objective instrumental caprice over objective laws and regularities.

In prediction, the activity modality of the subject—dialogicality (communication)—of the subject, means (technologies), and object is closely intertwined with the temporal modality of subjective time—social time (the duration of societal and communal events)—and objective time (the duration of the objective system—systemic time). Therefore, the delineation of means outside the activity triad of subject-subject-object may reflect the processes of objectification and institutionalization of practically oriented knowledge but serves to dehumanize activity, forming a "technological slavery," which denies the right of a person to be a subject while leaving them with rights to behavioral activity and socio-cultural practices as an actor, rather than the activity of a subject. Thus, in the activity-oriented definition of prediction, there remains room for creativity, self-organization, and the generalization of one's future.

1. Rehush defines several types of anticipatory reflection based on classification criteria: by degree of awareness—conscious, unconscious; by form of existence—anticipatory: reactions, actions, images, inferences, plans, hypotheses, consequences; based on foundations—scientific, empirical; by level of mental reflection—sub-sensory, sensory, perceptual, representational, language-thought, personal (the latter level was added to the classification by the aforementioned E. Surkov); and by combinations of these types—premonition, prophecy, foreboding, prediction, forecasting.

Rehush's overarching classification requires refinement not by classification criteria but by levels and mechanisms of harmonizing the integrity of human anticipation, where all levels of anticipation combine in the holistic fullness of being. In various situations, one level of anticipation may dominate over another, or an individual's ability for different types of anticipation tends to be personal.

Ultimately, based on the conducted research, it is possible to refine the types of anticipatory reflection in relation to others within the unified mechanisms of anticipatory activity.

Primarily, anticipation is conditioned by biogenetic processes of development, manifesting through the biophysical and reflexive processes, including anticipatory reflection. This anticipatory reflection occurs in the empirical channels of perception: in the visual channel, based on sight, as prediction; in the auditory channel, based on hearing and speech, as prophecy; in the kinesthetic channel, based on touch and movement, as preconception; in the gustatory channel, based on taste, as pre-tasting; and in the olfactory channel, based on the sense of smell.

The initial empirical anticipation subsequently establishes emotional-sensory determinacy, observance serving as the foundation for forecasting. Emotional-sensory anticipation, or premonition, essentially reflects the correlation of coordinated reflexive reflection with the measure of the unconscious in biosocial behavior. The unity of genotypic and phenotypic predispositions toward optimism and pessimism in inheritance and learned behavior has been studied by Martin Seligman for 25 years. According to E. Surkov’s classification, this is a level of perception, although he emphasized the kinesthetic and visual channels of perception. Furthermore, in martial arts practices and the formation of psychosomatic behavior—interpreted as an adequate perception of situations—the emotional (socially conditioned sensitivity) component is viewed as "waves on the surface of a lake that reflects the moonlight." In other words, the emotional component is seen as an impediment to adequate reflection, as a linguistic-cognitive level of reflection.

Premonition, as an emotional-sensory anticipation, is regarded in psychosomatic Eastern practices within the unity of imagery and the imagined determinacy of anticipation. Preconceiving, as imagistic anticipation, defines sociocultural behavior—an unconscious activity based on sociocultural norms and values—characterized as cultured behavior within the unity of psychosomatic reflection of the biosocial measure of life. The objectification of sociocultural behavior in society occurs through cultural practices. This process corresponds to the level of anticipatory representations in E. Surkov's classification.

Emotional-sensory and imagistic determinacies of anticipation possess an organizing nature and reflect the biosocial measure of life as a holistic entity, non-analytical perception, and unconscious behavior, albeit constrained by sociocultural values, cultured, assimilated behavior that is spontaneous for humans. Cultured spontaneity is acquired through cultural practices in which a person lives and acts from an early age. Hence, anticipation in sociocultural behavior manifests as a holistic imagistic perception of situations and time.

The linguistic-cognitive level of anticipation defines goal-setting—conscious, goal-oriented human activity in which one reconciles societal demands with personal needs and interests. In this activity, individuality and self-realization occur. The objectification and societal imitation of activity transpire through social technologies and their outcomes. The analytical nature of activity, as human selectivity and specificity in goal-setting, necessitates the self-construction of intuition toward wholeness, coherence in the fullness of existence. These processes transpire and are conditioned within the linguistic-cognitive determinacy of anticipation, reflecting the social measure of human life as a wholeness, according to E. Surkov's classification, at the linguistic-cognitive level of anticipation. The activity level of anticipation—forecasting—determines the generalizing direction of anticipation as a reflection of creativity and self-realization.

The socio-technological content of forecasting delineates the essence of how effective activity transforms from innovation into innovation, transmitted through experience to other subjects, preserved within the sociocultural space of society as scientific and practical traditions, which, in turn, develop alongside social processes, elevating social technologies to a new level. Social technologies reflect the processes of objectification and institutionalization of effective activity. Social forecasting, in the specific sense of social technology, embodies the process of identifying the future of social technologies, providing options and alternatives for societal development in addressing pressing and prospective issues, defining the temporal interval of changes in social space and societal relations.

The fullness of human existence as a biosocial entity demands the reconciliation of subjectivity and intersubjectivity, the unity of personal and societal elements; feelings, images, meanings, and intuitions; reflexive and sociocultural behaviors and activities; objectified social technologies and practices; as well as the biophysical, biosocial, and social levels of the whole. As a holistic entity, a person reconciles their individuality and independence with their belonging to reference groups and broader communities within the entirety of society. This represents the meta-level of anticipation, which determines the integrity of the individual within the entirety of humanity, in the universality of people within the temporal modality of the future.

In summarizing all that has been said, it can be concluded that forecasting, in its most general form, emerges as a proactive reflection of reality. The capacity for forecasting constitutes an intellectual endeavor of humanity, representing one of the primary functions of human consciousness. The fundamental impetus that drives individuals to engage in forecasting lies in the existence of phenomena whose future remains unknown yet holds significant relevance for decisions made in the present. Consequently, there exists a yearning to penetrate the future through the eyes of reason, as Plato articulated.

Proactive reflection is an essential component of activity, grounded in the premise that its primary characteristic is goal-setting, along with the expected and anticipated outcomes. This is why normative forecasting is highlighted as one of the principal categories within forecasting typology. Goal-setting serves to reduce uncertainty in one’s efforts, while the uncertainty of the surrounding world necessitates a different type of forecast—exploratory forecasting.

Political actors are particularly dependent on forecasting in situations characterized by risk and uncertainty, especially during crises and instability within the political system. Political forecasting focuses on investigating the future of power, its technologies, and the constraints of their application. Thus, political forecasting (or previously, prophesying) has historically been under the close scrutiny of governing structures, remains so in the present, and is likely to continue in the future.

1. Yanch’s definitions have become classical for understanding the phenomenon of forecasting; he asserts that a forecast is a probabilistic statement about the future with a relatively high degree of likelihood, while a prediction is an apodictic (non-probabilistic) assertion about the future based on absolute certainty. Anticipation, on the other hand, is a logically constructed model of a possible future with an as-yet undetermined level of probability. Today, anticipation is used in a much broader context as any proactive reflection of humanity, significantly expanding the range of anticipatory processes, particularly in social-psychological research. E. Yanch was one of the first to raise the question of the movement of technologies, which indeed enhances the probability of determining the limits of the possible amidst "the temptations of unrestrained imagination." It is essential to note that forecasting has evolved from prophesies, on the path of transforming apodictic statements into probabilistic ones (within causal regularities), moving away from absolute certainty rooted in fatalism about the future, toward asserting will and subjectivity based on the knowledge of objective regularities, and thus directed toward achieving a high degree of likelihood. At the same time, the study of credible forecasts that have materialized and the technologies associated with them represents the primary sources for examining political forecasting.

Technological forecasting serves as a probabilistic assessment with a relatively high level of confidence regarding the future transfer of technology. Exploratory technological forecasting begins with the existing knowledge base and is oriented toward the future, whereas normative technological forecasting first assesses future goals, needs, desires, missions, and so forth, proceeding in reverse to the present.

In forecasting research, considerable importance is attributed to so-called direct and reverse forecasting effects, which were studied by R. Merton (1949), T. Gordon, and O. Helmer (1960s), and systematically categorized by V.Ya. Matviyenko. Forecasting effects are associated with reactions to forecasts from both proponents and opponents. The first noteworthy effect is that of "self-fulfilling prophecies" or the "Oedipus effect."

Among direct forecasting effects, V.Ya. Matviyenko has reasonably distinguished the following:

1. A self-organizing forecast, which arises as a result of the acceptance of a forecast and the actions taken by individuals.
2. A self-eliminating forecast, which predicts the emergence of a certain social form, but as a result of human actions, it does not materialize. This type of forecast may take the form of a warning.
3. A transforming forecast, indicating the appearance of an unexpected outcome in actions subsequently taken.
4. A forecasting shift—an effect of acceleration or deceleration of the forecast. This effect was studied in 1969 by I.V. Bestuzhev-Lada and V.A. Lastochkin in the "paradox of forecasting shift," concerning the impossibility of complete adequacy between projected phenomena and their actual state in the future.
5. An effect of intensification or attenuation, analogous to the forecasting shift, but not in a temporal sense, rather in quantitative characteristics. In our view, the forecasting shift should not only include temporal shifts but also deviations in qualitative characteristics; only deviations from the overall, targeted outcome distinguish it from the transformation of the forecast (in the context of the particular and the general).
6. Effects of warning or consequences arise where the actions of individuals lead to the emergence of an unforeseen social form, either prior to the anticipated phenomenon (warning effect) or afterward (consequence effect).

The aforementioned author also identified reverse forecasting effects:

1. The "boomerang effect," where a forecast may harm a particular social group, resulting in a negative reaction against the forecaster.
2. The "activation effect of forecasts," which arises from the success of forecasts and their utility for individuals, leading to heightened attention to these forecasts.
3. The "neutralization effect of forecasts," associated with inaccuracies in forecasts and a decline in trust toward them.
4. The "forecasting fashion effect" (the "bandwagon effect" of C. Shannon): in cases of successful forecasts in a particular field, other forecasters direct their attention there, creating a surge of interest.
5. "Forecasting panic" emerges from a trend toward negative forecasts, fostering a belief in "collapse" or "crisis."
6. "Forecasting blindness" befalls forecasters focused solely on positive forecasts.

In our opinion, the activation effect of forecasts and the neutralization effect of forecasts represent a dichotomy that requires investigation in their interrelation. The activation of forecasts occurs at moments of high significance for decision-making but relies on trust, based on precedents of successful forecasts, while self-elimination represents the reverse, self-organizing connection, responding to inaccuracy.

The "forecasting fashion" and "panic" effects are specific instances of forecast activation, based on imitation (mimesis). The "forecasting blindness" effect is merely one manifestation of the subjective factors that transform forecasts.

It is essential to emphasize that direct effects study the influences of forecasts on society and politics, while reverse effects examine the influence of society and politics on forecasters following the emergence of a forecast.

Contemporary political analysis and political sociology, as practically oriented disciplines in studying the political sphere, are increasingly questioned by politicians, mass media, and civil society organizations. These doubts are primarily linked to heightened expectations regarding the tools of political forecasting, which are intended to provide valuable insights into ongoing events and strategies for achieving success in political struggle.

Simultaneously, there exists considerable pressure from political "clients" for the preparation of summary documents aimed at utilizing scientifically substantiated conclusions from research as a political technology to influence the public consciousness of voters. Consequently, theoretical conclusions are subjected to "adjustment" by clients in accordance with the recommendations of political technologists or, even worse, based on the "vision" of politicians. In this situation, the qualities of the scientist-practitioner that emerge as paramount are principle, objectivity, scientific rigor, and fidelity to scientific ideals.

However, beyond the subjective resilience of the scholar, the utility and credibility of political forecasting are secured by methodological principles designed to enhance the reliability, scientific substantiation, utility, and verifiability of predictions. The problem of methodological principles in social cognition has been studied by the Marxist school and the German school of historicism, particularly by its prominent representatives such as W. Dilthey, G. Simmel, G. Rickert, and W. Windelband. A significant contribution to the study of methodological principles has been made by M. Weber. In this context, one should also note the developments in the principles of technological forecasting by E. Yanch and J. Martino.

Among domestic researchers, it is essential to mention I. Bestuzhev-Lada, who emphasized the methodological principles of social forecasting. The relationship between the principles of history and forecasting has been analyzed by a collective of authors led by A. Alpeyev.

The quest for methodologically sound principles necessitates the exploration of various levels of scientific principles applicable to forecasting in general and political forecasting in particular. The first step is to determine the specificity of forecasting within the process of social cognition, and thus the specificity of applying the principles of social cognition in forecasting. The second step involves studying not only the species characteristics of forecasting as a theoretical inquiry but also investigating the characteristics of the principles of practical study of reality, its potentials, and the possibilities of subjective activity. In this regard, forecasting assumes the role of a practically oriented social technology. The realization of theoretical guidelines moving from the general to the particular, from the abstract to the concrete, requires not only the identification of the species characteristics of social forecasting as a synthesis of the principles of social cognition and social technologies but also the establishment of the specific nature of political forecasting as a “subspecies” of social technologies.

Thus, the systematization of the principles of political forecasting becomes relevant.

A principle (from Latin Principium — foundation, beginning) is 1) a fundamental, initial proposition of a theory or teaching; a guiding idea, a primary rule of action; 2) an internal conviction or perspective that determines a norm of behavior; 3) the foundation of the structure or action of a mechanism or device. Merely noting the semantic definition of a principle as "a fundamental, initial proposition" is insufficient, as it is essential to identify the criteria that allow one to ascertain the essential characteristics of those theoretical propositions that are foundational and conceptual. Such characteristics are defined within dialectical epistemology.

These very characteristics have formed the basis of the definition of "principle" — a term denoting a regularity underlying the mechanism of a particular activity.

In dialectics, as a theory of development, we engage in cognitive activity based on two principles: the principle of universal connection and the principle of development. The principle of universal connection is grounded in the understanding that all reality accessible to us consists of a multitude of objects and phenomena that are interconnected in various relationships. The principle of development arises from the notion that matter is characterized by both absolute motion and relative rest. This principle necessitates that the study of an object be conducted within the framework of continuous movement, change, and development. Furthermore, development is understood as a purposeful, law-governed, and irreversible movement from the lower to the higher, from the simple to the complex. Any science possesses its own system of research principles, which the scholar must adhere to in order to achieve positive results. These principles emerge in the process of creatively grasping objective reality. Albert Einstein noted that “to apply his method, a theorist requires some general assumptions, so-called principles, from which he can derive conclusions.” Moreover, “there is no method that can be learned and systematically applied to achieve an objective. Rather, the researcher must discover clearly articulated general principles from nature that reflect certain general traits of the entirety, a multitude of experimentally established facts.”

The establishment of regularities in anticipatory cognition necessitates the search for principles that connect forecasting with all forms of scientific knowledge, reflecting the particularities of this type of cognitive process. The relationship between prognostic and historical knowledge is directly linked to the identification of the temporal specificity of the past, present, and future in the formation of the social perspective within fields of knowledge such as history, sociology, and prognostics. In this light, the application of knowledge regarding the formation of the social perspective in the analysis of the past serves as an examination of the resultant principle of social perspective in history. Gaining knowledge about the formation of the social perspective in the present (in the context of current events and processes relevant to contemporary society) holds heuristic significance for existing and active social subjects (both in sociology and social management, social psychology, pedagogy, as well as in social philosophy). The study of potentials and possibilities for desired perspectives not only offers an anticipatory reflection of social cognition but also orientates and establishes goals for the activities of social subjects. However, not every possibility becomes a regularity, as subjective distortions in both cognition and activity can lead to the deformation of the social perspective or the formation of social resistance, which corrects arbitrariness as a reflection of the objectivity of social processes.

Since the aim of all cognition is to obtain objectively true knowledge, historical cognition must necessarily align with the principle of objectivity in its content. However, adherence to this principle must consider the specificity of the subject of historical study, namely that it evolves over time and space. This implies the application of the principle of historicism alongside the principle of objectivity. The specificity of subject-object relations necessitates the application of a value-oriented approach.

The worldview significance of the principle of historicism lies, above all, in substantiating the profound connection between eras, whereby the present and future are conditioned by historical pasts. Historicism as a mode of thinking is intimately connected with historicism as a principle of historical cognition. The latter requires that any historical phenomenon be studied in its development, its concrete-historical conditioning, and individuality (individuality, people, era, movement, and even humanity). The principle of historicism embodies the idea of development, viewing individuality in its genesis, formation, and revelation of its purpose, and its interconnection with others. The principle of objectivity in Marxist theory of reflection posits that objectivity entails reproducing an object as it exists in itself, independent of human perception and consciousness.

According to M. Weber, the objectivity of cognition in the social sciences is characterized by the fact that empirical data is always related to value-laden ideas, which alone form the cognitive value of these sciences, allowing for an understanding of the significance of such knowledge, though they cannot serve as proof of that significance, which cannot be provided empirically. Life, in its irrational reality and the possible meanings contained within it, is inexhaustible; therefore, specific forms of valuation cannot be constant: they are subject to continuous change, fading into the obscurity of humanity’s cultural future.

The methodological principles of social cognition, as rightly noted by Yu. Surmin and M. Tulenko, exhibit a distinctive qualitative specificity arising from the unique characteristics of social objects, processes, acts, and the technologies employed in social cognition. Firstly, the methodological principles of social cognition are influenced not only by scientific revolutions and cognitive processes but also by social revolutions, historical epochs, and the social dynamics unfolding within them. Social factors profoundly reshape the principles of social cognition and model their application. Secondly, compared to the principles of natural cognition, the methodological principles of social cognition are less rigid, favoring an orientation towards elucidating the qualitative attributes of social objects. Thirdly, these principles are more susceptible to the influences of ideological doctrines. At the level of principles, the independence of sociological science from ideology must be upheld.

The value-oriented principle of social cognition posits that in the process of studying social reality, a scientific-cognitive (logical) and value-oriented analysis is conducted. Value is perceived as an element of cultural and universal human heritage; the crucial epistemological function of evaluative judgments lies in relating the object of cognition (the past in history and the future in forecasting) as a significant phenomenon for the present. Assessing socially significant activities and issues contributes to the formation of essential value orientations of the subject within the surrounding world.

1. Zhukov and B. Krasnov identify two significant aspects of forecasting: the prophetic aspect, which involves describing possible or desired prospects, states, or decisions, and the premonitory aspect, which entails the actual resolution of these issues and the utilization of information about the future in purposeful activities. Thus, within the problem of forecasting, one can discern two dimensions: the theoretical-cognitive and the managerial, associated with the capacity to make decisions based on predictive knowledge.

The specificity of studying the future as a possibility delineates a substantial distinction between historical, retrospective cognition and prognostic, prospective inquiry. Historical studies reveal the patterns and outcomes of accomplished social practices, while prospective studies facilitate future activities by establishing dispositions towards what is to come (in exploratory forecasting) and premonitions (in normative, activity-oriented forecasting). Therefore, one of the most crucial principles of prognostic cognition is the activity-based approach. The principles of objectivity, value, and activity, along with the principle of development, manifest in the epistemological, axiological, and praxeological dimensions, as well as in the unity of retrospective and prospective principles in forecasting.

The principles of objectivity, development, and value orientation reflect significant patterns in both exploratory and normative forecasting. Simultaneously, alongside the principle of development, which predominates in exploratory forecasting, the principle of objectivity is prominent, while in normative forecasting, the principle of value orientation takes precedence. In exploratory forecasting, priority is given to investigating the self-development of the object of forecasting, whereas in normative forecasting, the focus shifts to identifying opportunities for effective subject activity, considering the development of objective conditions.

The activity-based principle characterizes forecasting as a vital social technology, given that the issues surrounding forecasting have been shaped, since the classical management school, as one of the essential functions of management, alongside planning, organization, coordination, control, and others, extending to foundational works on technological forecasting by E. Yanch and J. Martino.

1. Yanch linked the epistemological justification of forecasting in a praxeological context to defining stages in the life cycle of innovations, including social innovations. He identified eight fundamental levels of technologies in advancing progress. Each odd stage is associated with centripetal horizontal movements of technologies, while even stages relate to centrifugal movements. Vertically, technologies traverse stages: 1 - scientific resources, 2 - technological resources, 3 - elementary technologies, 4 - functional technological systems, 5 - application, 6 - environment, 7 - social systems, 8 - society. An example of such movement includes the empirical postulation of a scientific theory, the "fertilization" of another fundamental technological research, the amalgamation of isolated technologies, the dissemination of existing technologies, the need for auxiliary or supportive systems, the "invasion" of other sectors, programs for technical assistance to developing countries, and ethical constraints imposed on social objectives.

Technological forecasting is based on the regularities of the life cycle of technological innovation, which unfolds in the activities of various social subjects across different fields of scientific knowledge and practice, realized through self-organization in their interactions. Knowledge of the patterns governing the field of dispositions among social subjects provides the necessary foundation for forecasting, both exploratory and normative.

In contrast to E. Yanch, who expresses no doubts about the reliability of predictive knowledge, J. Martino critically assesses the application of the criterion of reliability in forecasting. He argues that using the criterion of reliability in the search for optimal solutions faces two challenges that hinder its application in assessing technological forecasts. The first, albeit of lesser significance, is that it does not provide a means to evaluate the quality of the forecast before the event occurs. The second, and more crucial, issue is that this approach ignores the method by which forecasts are utilized in decision-making (in controlled and uncontrolled conditions, in the actions of forecasts that "self-fulfill" and "self-destruct"). The utility of a forecast for decision-making purposes hinges on the soundness of the logical structure employed in the forecast and the extent to which available information is utilized.

According to J. Martino, the necessity for forecasting is primarily linked to the shortcomings of its potential alternatives:

• "absence of forecast" refers to decisions aimed at the short term and in minimal changes in conditions and technologies;
• the principle of "anything can happen," which asserts an inability to "influence the future in the desired direction," where inaction implies a tendency towards failure;
• the principle of the "glorious past," which consists of ignoring the future, constraining the future with past strategies and decisions, transforming them from instruments of development into "museum exhibits";
• the principle of "decisive actions," based on the assumption that leaders will have time to make effective decisions after a crisis situation arises;
• forecasting through the "genius" underscores a preference for intuitive decision-making methods in preparing forecasts.

As an unwelcome alternative to scientifically substantiated forecasts, pseudoforecasts come into consideration. Thus, V. Matviyenko defines the primary task of methodological and methodological forecasting principles as the necessity to distinguish forecasts from pseudoforecasts. He identifies three fundamental methodological forecasting principles: 1) optimism, 2) futurism, and 3) actualism. The principle of optimism in forecasting arises from the principle of historical optimism, which underpins a humanistic perception of the world. Forecasting optimism is the confidence that forecasting can assist individuals in improving their lives. The principle of futurism posits that each phenomenon ought to be examined in light of its future, which is embedded in the present. Actualism entails a concern for the people living in the current moment. Accordingly, pseudoforecasts rob the present of its future, mechanically transferring existing deficiencies into it while disregarding social progress; the future is viewed as a factor to which the present must submit or is already submitting. “Pseudoforecasts are methodologically based on principles: (1) desperate pessimism, (2) preservation of the present, (3) ’futuroshock.’ According to the first principle, it is impossible to resolve existing social problems. The second principle indicates an inclination to freeze the present. Reference to ’futuroshock’ serves as an accusation against the future for generating current problems.”

Within this conceptual framework, the issues surrounding actualism and the factor of the future remain unresolved. Caring for the present generation and addressing urgent problems is the essential principle for accumulating social energy through optimism. However, the factor of the future, as a means of preserving irreplaceable resources for tomorrow through pessimism, constrains the autonomy of acting social subjects. Through pessimism and the affirmation of value in the future of timeless values, predictive forecasts are formulated; yet this is active pessimism (not cowardice or irresponsibility), which is dialectically interconnected with optimism regarding the future. Thus, the factors of the future and actualism for the present are realized through the principle of social perspective in the interplay of optimism and pessimism.

The specificity of forecasting lies in the probabilistic nature of scientifically substantiated conclusions aimed at ensuring effective decisions. Forecasting, as a form of social technology, is grounded in an activity-based approach that establishes the determination of the future through the purposeful efforts of individuals, with the interaction of social subjects being the most significant source of social change. Therefore, for social forecasting, the principles of social technologies act as generative principles.

Researchers, including Yu. Surmin and M. Tulenkov, categorize the principles of social technologies into two groups. The first group delineates the individual stages of social technologies (principles of design and construction, principles of verification and implementation that regulate the processes of legitimizing technologies, and principles of functioning). The second group characterizes the content (structure) of technologies with two primary types—principles of social construction and specific technological principles. Within the principles of constructing social technologies, thirteen principles are outlined (effectiveness and optimality; goal-setting; systemicity, synergy; self-development; boundaries and cardinality; realism; humanism; sustainable development; problem orientation; reliability; innovativeness; reasoned use of best practices).

In this comprehensive system, the principles remain unsynthesized, as principles of different levels coexist as equal. Thus, in the activity-based approach, goal-setting is the fundamental characteristic, while optimality and effectiveness serve as criteria for goal-setting, with effectiveness determining the relationship between social effect and expenditures, and optimality achieving the maximum effect according to the target function. Therefore, optimality and effectiveness are clarifying principles concerning goal-setting, just as the principle of problem orientation reflects the conditions influencing goal-setting. Similarly, sustainable development characterizes the process of institutionalizing activities aimed at human progress or the effective use of controllable factors. The principles of boundaries and cardinality also contribute to the process and result of managed development. In contrast, the principle of self-development identifies the regularity of understanding uncontrollable objective factors, further specified by the principle of synergy. It is crucial to emphasize that the principle of reliability reflects one of the essential properties of complex systems (alongside safety, viability, flexibility, adaptability, etc.), while the reasoned use of best practices constitutes one of the stages of the “transposition” of innovation as technology.

The principles for constructing social technologies, in essence, are methodological principles that, according to the nature of technology, “unfold into a system of methods that yield concrete knowledge,” in our case, relating to the achievement of a predictable result through technology. For forecasting, this result entails acquiring knowledge that enables the social subject to make decisions amid uncertainty, recognizing the sources and specific nature of that uncertainty, narrowing its bounds, and determining the vector of movement into the future.

The formulation of numerous societal development programs ultimately serves to answer the questions: What will the world be like? Who are we and where are we? Where are we heading (goals)? How do we get there (plan)? V. Zhukov and B. Krasnov are correct in asserting that “the objective foundation of forecasting political events lies in the premise that their future is embedded in the present, yet only as a possibility; the new resides within the old (the past), yet again solely as a possibility. This possibility exists objectively within reality as a hidden tendency of its further development. Hence, there is no other path for forecasting the future except through comprehending the actual reality, more precisely, understanding the possibilities and tendencies embedded in the current state of the political system.”

Methodological principles are realized through their methodological principles, which ensure forecasting, while scientifically substantiated principles are actualized through principles of the “art of application” in practice. In relation to forecasting, the methodological principles have been justified in the “Forecasting Workbook,” which proposes the following principles: 1) systematics, 2) coherence, 3) variability, 4) continuity (of forecasting research support for the development of the object), 5) verifiability (defining the accuracy, credibility, and justification of the forecast), and 6) cost-effectiveness of forecasting (enhancing the economic efficiency of the forecast). It is precisely the methodological principles that reflect the specifics of constructing social technology and the technological aspect of research. Therefore, the primary principles are systematics (sometimes comprehensiveness), synergy (alongside variability and alternative options associated with synergy), continuity, and sequentialness (occasionally algorithmicity of social technology).

Researchers reasonably consider pseudoforecasts to be distinguishable from forecasts based on the following methodological forecasting principles: 1) justification of the forecast, 2) continuity of the forecast, and 3) proactivity of the forecast. The principle of justification dictates that a forecast must be constructed through a specific research procedure (algorithm) based on information about the past and present. A forecast must have a foundation—a baseline period, from which extrapolative regularities are established. The principle of continuity of the forecast requires that the forecast provide information not only for a specific moment in the future but also for a closer point within the interval encompassed by the forecast. The continuity of the forecast is vividly manifested in the extrapolation of smooth quantitative regularities. Owing to the property of continuity, the forecast allows for yearly (or even more frequent) comparisons with reality.

The methodological principle of objectivity unfolds at the methodological level through the principles of systematics, synergy, object-oriented activity-based approaches, innovation, scientific grounding, and verifiability. The principle of development is realized at the methodological level through the principles of sustainable development and self-development, the dialectical unity of retrospective and prospective, continuity, and sequence. The principle of value orientation is implemented through the principles of humanism (a human-centered approach in social technologies in general and forecasting in particular), realism (which denies utopianism and pseudo-forecasts), the principle of social perspective in the dialectical unity of optimism and pessimism, the principle of unity between the actual and the potential (the interconnection between actualism and the factor of the future in practical activity), and the goal-oriented focus on the mission of forecasting (the principle of the utility of the forecast).

The specificity of political forecasting is clarified through its object and subject. “One of the important directions of societal development forecasting is political forecasting, the object of which is politics (both internal and external), while the subject concerns the exploration of possible states of political events, phenomena, and processes.” Included within the subject of political forecasting are the agents of political activity, the state, civil society, classes, social strata, parties, and political leaders; social, economic, and cultural stakeholders who exert direct or indirect influence on politics; the objects of politics—both external and internal, society and the state, the international and domestic situations (events and occurrences), spheres of social life, goals and means for achieving those goals, political institutions, interrelations, relations, regimes, and organizational processes (the process of making political decisions, political communications, political style, power and influence, and the management of political conflict).