Society

The Laws of History

Throughout the history of socio-philosophical thought, the problem of uncovering the patterns or laws governing social development has been regarded as one of the most defining issues. This discussion does not concern legal statutes established by state authority, but rather objective laws of reality that exist independently of human consciousness and will. Indeed, knowledge of such laws would enable us to explain and anticipate the course of events.

Addressing this question requires consideration of certain characteristics inherent in the unfolding of socio-historical processes. First and foremost, it is essential to recognize that, unlike natural processes, which repeat in fairly similar forms, historical phenomena are unique. No events in history occur twice; nothing repeats with absolute precision. Here, one can only speak of the recurrence of certain general tendencies. A second noteworthy feature is that while nature is governed by unconscious and unintentional forces, history is shaped by rational beings endowed with free will. Consequently, in society, the course of events is influenced by the thoughts, emotions, interests, and moral principles of its participants. Moreover, individuals possess the freedom to choose, allowing them to behave differently under the same circumstances. Hence, a critical stance often arises regarding the conclusion that objective laws of history exist, as human behavior is determined by subjective volition, leading to the assertion that human history does not conform to any laws.

However, such peculiarities do not imply that human history is devoid of any governing laws. The uniqueness of historical phenomena is an undeniable fact, yet it should not be absolutized. By comparing various social events or different individuals, we can discern not only singular and irreplaceable elements but also shared, similar characteristics. Undoubtedly, it is impossible for two countries, monarchs, revolutions, etc., to be absolutely identical. Incidentally, one is unlikely to find two absolutely identical stars, rivers, or biological organisms in nature either; however, in comparison to society, there exists a significant difference in the ratio and “proportion” between the singular and the general. In any case, when commonalities are found among different historical events, the historical law manifests itself in the consistent recurrence of certain general traits.

Human free will is also not absolute. Certainly, human behavior is influenced by personal subjective views, inclinations, and goals. Yet, such freedom is always relative, shaped by objective circumstances that must be taken into account, thereby necessitating adjustments to subjective intentions.

People generally aspire to improve their living conditions and to achieve something of greater significance in life. This desire pertains to all individuals without exception. However, the realization of subjective desires and plans depends on numerous factors and is conditioned by various circumstances. In discussing the existence of such circumstances, it is crucial to note that each individual, at birth, enters a world of social reality that existed prior to their arrival. In this reality, their individual consciousness develops, and it is within this context that they are formed as persons. Social reality is perceived by individuals as a sum of the objective conditions of their lives—objective in the sense that they present themselves to each person as givens, as circumstances of existence that exist independently of the individual.

The overwhelming majority of people more readily perceive their impotence in the face of the objective conditions of social reality than their capacity to change it freely. Indeed, each person's potential in this regard is limited. This is reflected in the fact that our desires and thoughts are conditioned by social reality. Even the aspiration to radically transform society and any related projects arise as a reflection of the existing reality. Clearly, individuals can fantasize as they wish; however, practical realization is only possible within the bounds allowed by the objective laws of existence. After all, objective laws of the material world apply to society as a part of nature and a product of its development. None of these can be violated in social life. Through reason, individuals can discover these laws and find ways to utilize them to achieve necessary results, but the laws of nature cannot be rescinded.

Moreover, objective dependencies exist among historical events that no amount of free will can alter. These dependencies constitute the laws of history. For instance, it is impossible to organize machine production in a society that has not achieved the requisite level of scientific and technological development, or to form a national community without an appropriate level of national consciousness, or to build a civil society without a developed democracy, and so forth. Thus, while individuals can change social reality according to their will, they can only do so within the limits conditioned by the objective laws of both nature and society.

Consequently, there exist laws within history. However, these laws possess certain significant characteristics.

1. It is necessary to consider that individual and unique circumstances exert a greater influence on the unfolding of events in history than in nature. Such circumstances are accidental, meaning they do not possess a definitive necessity. This implies that historical regularities seem to “break through” the chaos of chance. Since each historical event contains an element of undefined randomness, the laws of history cannot unequivocally determine singular events. Historical regularity thus acts merely as the “equilibrium” of a multitude of contingencies. In other words, the laws of history exhibit a statistical nature. They are probabilistic laws: they do not establish, as do the laws of mechanics, a singular possible trajectory of historical events but rather define the probability of one course over another.
2. It must be taken into account that historical processes, unlike natural ones, do not unfold “on their own,” independent of human agency. History is not created by gods or unknown forces—it is shaped by people. Their subjective motives and intentions are integral components of historical processes. If people did not possess intentions, aims, and will, history would not exist.

From this, a fundamental characteristic of the laws of history emerges: the conscious activity of individuals is a necessary condition for their operation. In other words, the subjective factor is embedded within the very content of historical laws and serves as one of the real forces that determine the regular development of the historical process.

The laws of history give rise to a “multiplicity of possibilities” that can manifest in various ways or may not materialize at all. Which of these possibilities come to fruition and which do not depends on the subjective intentions and actions of individuals. Moreover, changes in human consciousness become a factor that alters social reality, thereby changing the conditions under which historical laws operate. Consequently, this “multiplicity of possibilities” does not have fixed, immutable boundaries; new ideas and projects for societal restructuring, once supported by society, may foster the emergence of new possibilities. The laws of history thus allow for historical creativity.

The dependency of the outcomes of historical laws on the consciousness and will of the active agents leads to the conclusion that these laws only outline a general tendency regarding the development of social processes in a particular direction or a probable vector of societal development. It is possible to foresee the future based on these laws only in general terms, but not in specific details. Considering this particular characteristic of historical laws, they are referred to as “laws of tendency”—in contrast to laws that permit precise calculations of what will occur under given conditions.